Major ice jams forming in lower reaches of the Peace River during spring breakup have been identified as the main agents of flooding and replenishment of perched basins of the Peace–Athabasca Delta, one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas that supports a dynamic and valuable ecosystem. The paucity of ice jamming in the lower Peace River following construction of the Bennett Dam in 1968 and the potential impacts of climate change have raised concerns regarding habitat degradation. One of the factors controlling ice-jam formation is the thickness of the winter ice cover, which may decrease in the future as a result of climatic warming, known to be most pronounced in northern parts of the globe and during the winter season. Using downscaled daily output from six Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, ice thickness is calculated for the years 1950 to 2100. Comparisons of monthly model-generated air temperatures and winter snowfall to historical data at nearby Fort Chipewyan indicate satisfactory agreement in terms of both magnitude and variability. Future projections show that under the highest emission scenario, average thickness decreases by about 0.2 m between the 1980s and the 2050s; and by an additional 0.1 m by the 2080s. Projected probability distributions of ice thickness point to increased incidence of thermal breakup, potentially reducing the already-low chances of ice-jam flooding. At the same time, a need for enhanced ice thickness monitoring is identified, aiming to develop a database of annual thickness values at selected sites within the lower reach of Peace River.

春季破裂期间在和平河下游形成的主要冰堵已被确认为和平-阿萨巴斯卡三角洲栖息盆地的洪水和补给的主要推动力，阿萨巴斯卡三角洲是世界上最大的内陆淡水三角洲之一，支持充满活力和宝贵的生态系统。1968年贝内特（Bennett）大坝建成后，和平河下游的冰层稀少，加上气候变化的潜在影响，引发了人们对栖息地退化的担忧。控制冰堵塞形成的因素之一是冬季冰盖的厚度，由于气候变暖的影响，冬季冰盖的厚度可能会在未来减小，众所周知，这种变暖在全球北部和冬季最为明显。在两个代表性的集中路径情景下，使用来自六个全球气候模型的缩减的每日产量，计算了1950年至2100年的冰厚度。将每月模型生成的气温和冬季降雪与附近奇普维扬堡的历史数据进行比较，表明就条件而言令人满意的协议的大小和可变性。未来的预测表明，在最高排放情景下，1980年代至2050年代之间的平均厚度将减少约0.2 m；到2080年代又增加了0.1 m。预计的冰厚概率分布表明增加了热破裂的可能性，从而潜在地减少了冰堵塞泛滥的机会。同时，确定了对加强冰厚监测的需求，