Context

Riparian areas are considered to undergo major alterations under changing climate, making floodplain habitats targets for conservation and landscape planning. Protected areas might provide sanctuaries especially for sessile riparian plant species, but these niches are not always persistent over time.

Objectives

We investigate if plant species of floodplain forests are provided with suitable habitat within currently protected areas and if these refugia persist. A coupled-modelling approach is used to gain spatially explicit information on new areas for sanctuaries.

Methods

We use species distribution models to predict the niche of 12 Salicion albae and 7 Fraxinion floodplain forest species along rivers in Switzerland, under current, moderate and extreme climate change scenarios up to 80 years to the future (2100). The spread of plant species from current habitat to suitable future habitat is simulated using dispersal vectors and life history traits.

Results

Salicion albae species are more flexible under both climate change scenarios than Fraxinion species. The main limitation for the spread of species is their dispersal ability, as only a minority of the suitable cells is colonized during the simulation process. The predicted future presence within currently protected areas decreases under both climate change scenarios in the model.

Conclusions

Current protected floodplains do not provide persistent refugia for the plants studied, but might still be of importance to other organisms. Planning of sanctuaries for riparian plant species and communities need to focus on connectivity along rivers to maintain viable source populations in dynamic riverine landscapes under changing climate.

中文翻译：

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气候变化需要洪泛区森林从避难所转移到避难所

语境

河岸地区被认为在气候变化下发生了重大变化，使洪泛区生境成为保护和景观规划的目标。保护区可能为无柄河岸植物物种提供了庇护所，但是这些利基并不总是随时间而持久。

目标

我们调查了洪泛区森林的植物物种是否在当前保护区内提供了合适的栖息地，以及这些避难所是否持续存在。耦合建模方法用于获取有关庇护所新区域的空间明确信息。

方法

我们使用物种分布模型来预测在长达80年（2100年）的当前，中度和极端气候变化情景下，瑞士河流沿岸的12种水杨柳和7种水素泛滥平原森林物种的生态位。使用传播媒介和生活史特征模拟植物物种从当前栖息地到合适的未来栖息地的扩散。

结果

Salicion albae品种都是气候变化情景下相比更灵活Fraxinion种。物种传播的主要限制是它们的分散能力，因为在模拟过程中只有少数合适的细胞被定殖。在该模型的两种气候变化情景下，当前保护区内的预计未来存在量都会减少。

结论

当前受保护的洪泛区不能为研究的植物提供持久的避难所，但可能对其他生物仍然很重要。河岸植物物种和社区保护区的规划需要重点关注河流之间的连通性，以在气候变化的情况下在动态的河流景观中维持可行的源种群。