Abstract

Using climate monitoring data from 96 Russian weather stations, the years of severe droughts are identified. For this purpose, the following criterion was used: a value of the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient for May–August is less than 0.6. Climate of a time period, i.e., a set of consecutive years, is considered unfavorable for the cultivation of grain crops if the frequency of severe droughts p (the Bernoulli distribution parameter) exceeds 0.5. This parameter is estimated from data of the considered weather stations separately for the time periods of 1976–1997 and 1998–2019 based on the number of the identified severe droughts. The probability that p > 0.5 is estimated, and the corresponding schematic maps are constructed for both time periods. The highest probability is obtained for the stations located in the Astrakhan, Volgograd, Saratov, and Orenburg oblasts, the Republic of Kalmykia, and the Republic of Crimea. At the same time, a noticeable increase in this probability in the second period relative to the first one is found for the Volgograd and Saratov oblasts.

中文翻译：

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基于严重干旱的频率评估谷物栽培的气候适宜性

摘要

使用来自96个俄罗斯气象站的气候监测数据，可以确定严重干旱的年份。为此，使用了以下标准：5月至8月的Selyaninov热液系数值小于0.6。如果严重干旱的发生频率p（伯努利分布参数）超过0.5 ，则认为一段时间（即连续几年）的气候不利于谷物作物的种植。根据已识别的严重干旱次数，分别根据考虑的气象站1976-1997年和1998-2019年期间的数据估算该参数。p的概率估计> 0.5，并在两个时间段内都构建了相应的示意图。位于阿斯特拉罕，伏尔加格勒，萨拉托夫和奥伦堡州，卡尔梅克共和国和克里米亚共和国的气象站的概率最高。同时，对于伏尔加格勒州和萨拉托夫州，第二个阶段相对于第一个阶段的概率显着增加。