Abstract

Future changes in water deficit in Central Asia are analyzed based on the ensemble simulations with the system of the regional climate model (RCM) and atmospheric boundary layer model (ABLM) developed at the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. It is shown that by the middle of the 21st century the forecasted changes over the irrigated areas are greater by 2.5–4.0 times than those inferred from the standalone RCM simulation without irrigation effects. Future water deficit is forecasted to grow across Central Asia and will lead to 10% larger irrigation water demand per hectare in order to sustain cotton productivity, depending on the conditions of its cultivation at individual farms. The results of the study can be used for the planning of the rational use of agricultural lands and for the effective management of water resources.

中文翻译：

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到21世纪中叶干旱地区高分辨率缺水集合气候预测

摘要

基于集合模拟，利用Voeikov主地球物理天文台开发的区域气候模型（RCM）和大气边界层模型（ABLM）系统，分析了中亚未来的水资源短缺变化。结果表明，到21世纪中叶，灌溉面积的预测变化比没有灌溉效果的独立RCM模拟推断的预测值大2.5-4.0倍。预计中亚地区未来的缺水情况将会加剧，这将导致每公顷灌溉用水需求增加10％，以维持棉花的生产力，这取决于各个农场的种植条件。研究结果可用于合理规划农业用地和有效管理水资源。