ABSTRACT

Climate change, together with changes in land cover and water allocations, is expected to affect the availability of water resources. The long-term effect of these changes on available water resources in central Chile was comprehensively evaluated through climatic trends from 1982, land cover changes from 2001, and water allocations from 1980. Trends in climatic, land cover and hydrological variables were based on a wide range of data sources in combination with inter-annual climate variability analysis. Climate variables suggest trends that lead to a drier future. Land cover changes show increased agricultural and forestry extents, which have also shifted towards more southern regions, and a reduction in water and ice/snow covered areas. These changes have been encouraged by steady increases in water allocations. About 90% of evaluated gauging stations and 87% of analysed monitoring wells indicate declining trends. Future drier scenarios require further actions to address increasing water scarcity in Chile.

摘要

气候变化，连同土地覆盖和水资源分配的变化，预计将影响水资源的可用性。这些变化对智利中部可用水资源的长期影响通过 1982 年的气候趋势、2001 年的土地覆盖变化和 1980 年的水资源分配进行了综合评估。气候、土地覆盖和水文变量的趋势基于广泛的数据来源范围与年际气候变率分析相结合。气候变量表明导致未来更干燥的趋势。土地覆盖变化表明农业和林业范围扩大，也向更南部地区转移，水和冰/雪覆盖面积减少。水资源分配的稳步增加促进了这些变化。大约 90% 的评估测站和 87% 的分析监测井显示下降趋势。未来更干燥的情景需要采取进一步行动来解决智利日益严重的水资源短缺问题。