Objectives

To test the cumulative disadvantage hypothesis—that system-level racial and ethnic disparities accumulate from intake to final disposition—by investigating relative and absolute disparities across different pathways through the juvenile justice system.

Methods

Using a sample of 95,670 juvenile court referrals across 140 counties in four states, the present study employed multinomial logistic regression to examine racial and ethnic disparities across 14 possible combinations of juvenile justice outcomes (i.e., pathways), ranked from least to most punitive. We then estimated predicted probabilities and marginal effects of race and ethnicity for each pathway.

Results

We found limited support for the cumulative disadvantage hypothesis. Racial and ethnic disparities were greatest for the most punitive pathways, but the findings do not point to extensive evidence of cumulative disadvantage. Specifically, neither relative nor absolute disparities accumulated from least to most punitive pathways, and some of the least punitive pathways were actually more likely for minority defendants.

Conclusions

The results underscore the need for more careful measurement and analysis of disadvantage and disparities in the criminal and juvenile justice systems. In particular, more attention should be paid to early outcomes such as detention, where large differences between racial and ethnic groups were observed, as well as to relative and absolute differences in processing outcomes.

中文翻译：

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少年司法的途径：少年犯处理中累积不利因素的系统级评估

目标

通过调查青少年司法系统不同途径之间的相对和绝对差异，以检验累积不利假设（系统级种族和种族差异从摄入到最终处置的累积）。

方法

本研究使用四个州140个县的95,670个青少年法院转介样本，采用多项逻辑回归分析检查了14种可能的少年司法结果（即途径）组合中的种族和族裔差异，从最低到最高惩罚性排名。然后，我们估算了每种途径的预测概率以及种族和种族的边际效应。

结果

我们发现对累积不利假设的支持有限。对于大多数惩罚性途径，种族和族裔差异最大，但研究结果并未指出累积劣势的广泛证据。具体而言，从最小惩罚途径到大多数惩罚途径的相对或绝对差距都没有累积，而对于少数被告人而言，某些惩罚最少的途径实际上更有可能出现。

结论

结果强调需要对刑事和少年司法系统中的劣势和差距进行更仔细的衡量和分析。特别是，应更加注意早期结果，例如拘留，观察到种族和族裔群体之间存在很大差异，以及处理结果的相对和绝对差异。