This study examines the asymmetric relationships between demographic characteristics of labor market variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Turkish economy. Both expansions and recessions are considered in a Markov Switching (MS) model, using quarterly data between 1989 and 2019. Okun’s coefficients are estimated for the different age groups, genders and education levels. The results reveal that men are more likely to lose their jobs during recessions in Turkey whereas unemployment rates for 25-39 year-olds and those with at least university degrees are the least affected groups. There is also asymmetry within and between states across the demographic groups due to GDP phases. The study also investigates the gender dynamics of labor force participation rates (LFPR) as a fundamental determinant of unemployment rate. According to the MS models, LFPR responds significantly and positively to GDP expansions for men whereas it is significant and negative for women. That is, as economic activity begins to recover after a recession, Turkish women leave the labor force as secondary income earners.

本研究考察了劳动力市场变量的人口特征与土耳其经济中的国内生产总值 (GDP) 之间的不对称关系。马尔可夫转换 (MS) 模型使用了 1989 年至 2019 年的季度数据，同时考虑了扩张和衰退。Okun 系数是针对不同年龄组、性别和教育水平进行估计的。结果显示，男性在土耳其经济衰退期间更有可能失业，而 25-39 岁和至少拥有大学学位的人的失业率受影响最小。由于 GDP 阶段不同，各州内部和各州之间也存在不对称性。该研究还调查了劳动力参与率 (LFPR) 作为失业率的基本决定因素的性别动态。根据 MS 模型，LFPR 对男性的 GDP 扩张反应显着且积极，而对女性则显着且消极。也就是说，随着经济活动在衰退后开始复苏，土耳其妇女离开劳动力市场，成为第二收入者。