ABSTRACT

Leishmaniasis is a public health problem worldwide. We aimed to predict ecological niche models (ENMs) for visceral (VL) and cutaneous (CL) leishmaniasis and the sand flies involved in the transmission of leishmaniasis in São Paulo, Brazil. Phlebotomine sand flies were collected between 1985 and 2015. ENMs were created for each sand fly species using Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling software, and 20 climatic variables were determined. Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912), the primary vectors involved in CL and VL, displayed the highest suitability across the various regions, climates, and topographies. L. longipalpis was found in the border of Paraná an area currently free of VL. The variables with the greatest impact were temperature seasonality, precipitation, and altitude. Co-presence of multiple sand fly species was observed in the cuestas and coastal areas along the border of Paraná and in the western basalt areas along the border of Mato Grosso do Sul. Human CL and VL were found in 475 of 546 (86.7%) and 106 of 645 (16.4%) of municipalities, respectively. Niche overlap between N. intermedia and L. longipalpis was found with 9208 human cases of CL and 2952 cases of VL. ENMs demonstrated that each phlebotomine sand fly species has a unique geographic distribution pattern, and the occurrence of the primary vectors of CL and VL overlapped. These data can be used by public authorities to monitor the dispersion and expansion of CL and VL vectors in São Paulo state.

摘要

利什曼病是世界范围内的一个公共卫生问题。我们的目的是预测巴西圣保罗内脏 (VL) 和皮肤 (CL) 利什曼病以及参与利什曼病传播的白蛉的生态位模型 (ENM)。白蛉在 1985 年至 2015 年间收集。使用最大熵物种分布建模软件为每种白蛉创建 ENM，并确定了 20 个气候变量。Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) 和Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) 是参与 CL 和 VL 的主要媒介，在不同地区、气候和地形中表现出最高的适应性。L. longipalpis在巴拉那州边界被发现，该地区目前没有 VL。影响最大的变量是温度季节性、降水量和海拔高度。在巴拉那州边界沿线的cuestas和沿海地区以及南马托格罗索州边界沿线的西部玄武岩地区观察到多种白蛉共存。分别在 546 个城市中的 475 个（86.7%）和 645 个城市中的 106 个（16.4%）中发现了人类 CL 和 VL。在 9208 例人类 CL 病例和 2952 例 VL 病例中发现了N. intermedia和L. longipalis之间的生态位重叠。ENMs 表明，每种白蛉物种都有独特的地理分布模式，并且 CL 和 VL 的主要媒介的出现重叠。公共当局可以使用这些数据来监测圣保罗州 CL 和 VL 媒介的扩散和扩张。