Both bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements have grown in number over the past three decades, but their potential impact on trade may be different. This paper sheds light on the ex post (partial) effect of bilateral versus plurilateral trade agreements using the most recent econometric developments for the gravity equation on a dataset that covers 211 countries and territories over the period 1948–2013. Our results show that plurilateral trade agreements have significantly increased trade among trading partners, while this has not been the case for bilateral trade agreements.

中文翻译：

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警告：双边贸易协定不会创造贸易

在过去的三十年里，双边和诸边贸易协定的数量都有所增加，但它们对贸易的潜在影响可能不同。本文在涵盖 1948-2013 年期间 211 个国家和地区的数据集上使用重力方程的最新计量经济学发展，阐明双边与诸边贸易协定的事后（部分）影响。我们的研究结果表明，诸边贸易协定显着增加了贸易伙伴之间的贸易，而双边贸易协定并非如此。