This article examines the group polarization process when agents are faced with a risk for which the probability of occurrence is not perfectly known. First, we show information destruction through an informational cascade phenomenon. Then, we analyze how this inefficiency is amplified if individuals with the same type of risk-related behavior group together. Two extensions are detailed: consideration of the possibility that individual agents participate in more than one group, and introduction of agents highly confident in their own information, enabling cascades to be "broken." Under conditions, the behavior of these agents, costly at the individual level, is collectively efficient.

中文翻译：

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不完全信息和社会互动的风险感知：理解群体两极分化

本文研究了当代理面临发生概率尚不完全清楚的风险时的群体极化过程。首先，我们通过信息级联现象显示信息破坏。然后，我们分析了如果具有相同类型的风险相关行为的个体聚集在一起，这种低效率是如何被放大的。详细介绍了两个扩展：考虑单个代理参与多个组的可能性，以及引入对自己的信息高度自信的代理，从而能够“打破”级联。在某些条件下，这些代理的行为在个人层面上代价高昂，但总体上是有效的。