ABSTRACT

Social and hydrological dynamics are coupled, nonlinear, and complex. To clarify and enhance our understanding of such dynamics, we developed a stylized model that combines hydrological and social dynamics of a generic coupled human–water system. In this model, neither too much water (flood) nor too little water (drought) is desirable, and the population self-organizes to respond to relative benefits they derive from the water system and outside opportunities. Despite its simplicity, the model yields seven different regimes, governed by hydrological and socioeconomic factors. As external drivers change, the conditions giving rise to these regimes shift, and with them social consequences such as migration patterns. A clear understanding of the regime boundaries (thresholds) derived from this simple model contributes to insights on how one might cope with a complex socio-hydrological system under change.

摘要

社会和水文动力学是耦合的，非线性的和复杂的。为了阐明和增强我们对这种动态的理解，我们开发了一种程式化模型，该模型结合了通用的人水系统的水文和社会动态。在此模型中，既不希望有太多的水（洪水），也不要太少的水（干旱），并且人们会自我组织以响应他们从供水系统和外部机会中获得的相对利益。尽管模型很简单，但它产生了七个受水文和社会经济因素影响的不同制度。随着外部驱动力的变化，产生这些制度的条件发生了变化，随之而来的是社会后果，例如移民模式。