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Assessing the spatiotemporal socioeconomic flood vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04677-x
Tugkan Tanir , Andre de Souza de Lima , Gustavo de A. Coelho , Sukru Uzun , Felicio Cassalho , Celso M. Ferreira

Flood events are one of the most destructive and yet increasingly frequent natural hazards causing a considerable amount of economic losses in the United States (US). The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to flood hazards. The representation of spatiotemporal distributions of the agricultural damage and the vulnerability of the agricultural communities are essential for flood risk management. Therefore, this study investigates spatiotemporal Socioeconomic flood vulnerability of the agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed (PRW), where corn and soybeans cultivation are one of the important agricultural activities. In this context, a combination of the widely used flood damage estimation tool HAZUS-MH and the county-based Social Vulnerability Index (SOVI) were utilized for the vulnerability assessment. The spatial distribution of agricultural communities vulnerable to flood was evaluated for the extreme and average damage conditions for 365 days along with the monthly average damage from a 100-year flood event. The maximum crop damage and most likely months to experience major flood events were found in the same temporal periods. The spatial distributions of damage and SOVI assessments suggested that the most vulnerable agricultural communities (Highland (VA) and Prince George’s (MD)) did not experience high flood damages in any scenario. The agricultural community in Shenandoah County was the most vulnerable in September and October, which has the highest flood probability. This high risk that is spatiotemporally highlighted can aid decision-makers regarding the resource allocation for mitigation efforts in the PRW. Our method can potentially be replicated throughout the country, thus protecting vulnerable agricultural communities.



中文翻译:

评估波托马克河流域农业社区的时空社会经济洪水脆弱性

洪水事件是破坏力最大,但也越来越频繁的自然灾害之一,在美国造成了巨大的经济损失。农业部门特别容易遭受洪水灾害。农业破坏的时空分布和农业社区的脆弱性的表示对于洪水风险管理至关重要。因此,本研究调查了波托马克河流域(PRW)中农业社区的时空社会经济洪水脆弱性,那里的玉米和大豆种植是重要的农业活动之一。在这种情况下,将广泛使用的洪灾破坏评估工具HAZUS-MH和基于县的社会脆弱性指数(SOVI)结合在一起进行了脆弱性评估。评估了易受洪水侵袭的农业社区的空间分布,评估了365天的极端和平均破坏状况以及100年洪水事件造成的每月平均破坏。在相同的时间段内发现了最大的农作物损失和最可能经历重大洪灾事件的月份。破坏的空间分布和SOVI评估表明,在任何情况下,最脆弱的农业社区(高原(VA)和乔治王子(MD))都不会遭受高洪灾破坏。雪兰多厄县的农业社区在9月和10月最为脆弱,洪水可能性最高。在时空上突出显示的这种高风险可以帮助决策者确定在PRW中用于缓解工作的资源分配。

更新日期:2021-03-17
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