Prior literature examines the effects of both macroeconomic uncertainty and cyclicality (how strongly a firm's earnings is tied to macroeconomic conditions) on management and analyst earnings forecasts. However, these studies consider macroeconomic uncertainty and cyclicality independently and find conflicting results. This study argues that macroeconomic uncertainty and cyclicality are inextricably linked together, and should be studied jointly. Using a sample of earnings forecasts from 2001 to 2015, we find the following: (1) Kim, Pandit, and Wasley (2016)'s finding that heightened macroeconomic uncertainty decreases management's propensity to issue earnings forecasts is largely driven by firms with low cyclicality and (2) Hutton, Lee, and Shu (2012)'s finding that analysts issue more accurate forecasts than management for firms with high cyclicality only holds when macroeconomic uncertainty is high; increases in macroeconomic uncertainty lead to more accurate analyst forecasts relative to management forecasts only for firms with high cyclicality. These findings are useful to both researchers and investors interested in understanding how macroeconomic factors affect earnings forecasts.

先前的文献研究了宏观经济不确定性和周期性（公司的收益与宏观经济条件的关联程度）对管理层和分析师收益预测的影响。然而，这些研究独立考虑了宏观经济的不确定性和周期性，并发现了相互矛盾的结果。本研究认为，宏观经济的不确定性和周期性是密不可分的，应联合研究。使用 2001 年至 2015 年的盈利预测样本，我们发现以下内容： (1) Kim、Pandit 和 Wasley（2016 年）的发现，即宏观经济不确定性的加剧降低了管理层发布盈利预测的倾向，这主要是由低周期性公司驱动的(2) Hutton、Lee 和 Shu (2012)' 仅当宏观经济不确定性高时，分析师对高周期性公司的预测比管理层发布的预测更准确；宏观经济不确定性的增加导致分析师的预测相对于管理层预测更准确，仅适用于具有高周期性的公司。这些发现对有兴趣了解宏观经济因素如何影响盈利预测的研究人员和投资者都很有用。