We investigate the role of opinion polls on intention to vote in influencing Australian stock returns. We unravel robust evidence suggesting that stock returns react more to a preference to vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) than the Liberal-National Party (LNP). A one standard deviation increase in preference for ALP increases excess returns by 28.08% of its sample mean while the corresponding effect of LNP preference is only 15.48%. Economically, therefore, the effect of ALP preferences on excess returns is almost twice that of LNP. Results are robust to different portfolio formation, measures of returns, and controls for returns.

中文翻译：

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对政府偏好的民意调查会影响股票收益吗？

我们调查民意测验对投票意图在影响澳大利亚股票收益中的作用。我们得到的有力证据表明，股票回报比对澳大利亚工党（ALP）的投票倾向要比对自由党（LNP）的反应更大。ALP偏好的一个标准差增加将超额收益增加其样本均值的28.08％，而LNP偏好的相应影响仅为15.48％。因此，从经济上讲，ALP偏好对超额收益的影响几乎是LNP的两倍。结果对于不同的投资组合形成，收益度量和收益控制具有鲁棒性。