This paper analyses the impact of public pension expenditures and pension funds' assets as well as its paid-out benefits on macroeconomic volatility. We use panel data for 35 OECD countries for the period 1980–2018 and apply a set of state-of-the-art econometric estimators. Our results suggest a smoothing effect of public pension expenditures on per capita consumption growth volatility and overall macroeconomic volatility. We however do not find such effects coming from pension funds' paid-out benefits. In contrast, the effect of pension funds' assets depends crucially on the level of economic development: there is a dampening effect on per capita investment growth volatility in less developed countries; while a volatility-boosting effect in most developed countries.

中文翻译：

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经合组织国家的公共和私人养老金制度和宏观经济波动

本文分析了公共养老金支出和养老基金资产及其支付收益对宏观经济波动的影响。我们使用了 1980-2018 年期间 35 个经合组织国家的面板数据，并应用了一组最先进的计量经济学估计量。我们的结果表明公共养老金支出对人均消费增长波动和整体宏观经济波动具有平滑效应。然而，我们没有发现养老基金的支付福利会产生这种影响。相比之下，养老基金资产的影响主要取决于经济发展水平：对欠发达国家的人均投资增长波动有抑制作用；同时在大多数发达国家具有促进波动的作用。