Predicting change to shorelines globally presents an increasing challenge as sea level rise (SLR) accelerates. Many shoreline prediction models use the simplistic ‘Bruun rule’ for dealing with SLR profile translation, in-part due to alternative approaches being too complex and time-consuming to implement. To address this, we introduce ShoreTrans: a simple, rules-based, user-input driven, shoreface translation and sediment budgeting model, that applies the surveyed 2D-profile (not a parameterization), for estimating change to realistic coastlines, resulting from sea level rise and variations in sediment supply, while accounting for armouring, hard-rock cliffs and outcropping rocks. The tool can be applied to sand, gravel, rock and engineered coasts at a temporal scale of 10–100 years, accounting for shoreline trends as well as variability. The method accounts for: (1) dune encroachment/accretion; (2) barrier rollback; (3) non-erodible layers; (4) seawalls; (5) lower shoreface transport; (6) alongshore rotation; and (7) other sources and sinks. Uncertainty is accounted for using a probabilistic distribution for inputs and Monte Carlo simulations. We provide a first-pass assessment of two macrotidal UK embayments: Perranporth (sandy, dissipative, cross-shore dominant transport) and Start Bay (gravel, reflective, bi-directional alongshore dominant), then use idealised profiles to investigate the relative importance of forcing controls on shoreline recession and beach width. For the dissipative sandy site, the primary modes of coastal change are predicted to be short-term storm erosion and SLR translation while long-term trends may be important but are highly uncertain. For the reflective gravel site, the primary mode is multi-decadal longshore sediment flux, while short-term alongshore rotation and SLR translation are secondary. Relative to the ShoreTrans approach, the Bruun rule under-predicts shoreline recession in front of cliffs, seawalls and for low barriers that rollback, and over-predicts where large erodible dunes are present. ShoreTrans directly addresses change in beach width, with beaches in front of seawalls and cliffs predicted to shrink, such that narrow beaches (<50 m width) may disappear under 1-m SLR. As a standalone tool, ShoreTrans is transferable to many coast types and will provide coastal practitioners with a simple first-pass estimate of how the 2D appearance of a complex profile may change under SLR. A future benefit will be to combine this approach with existing hybrid modelling techniques to augment SLR translation predictions.

随着海平面上升（SLR）的加速，预测全球海岸线变化将面临越来越大的挑战。许多海岸线预测模型使用简单的“布鲁恩法则”来处理SLR配置文件转换，部分原因是替代方法过于复杂且难以实施。为了解决这个问题，我们引入了ShoreTrans：一个简单的，基于规则的，由用户输入驱动的，岸面平移和沉积物预算模型，该模型将应用所调查的2D剖面（而不是参数化），以估算由海浪导致的真实海岸线的变化水位上升和沉积物供应量的变化，同时考虑了装甲，硬岩峭壁和露头岩石。该工具可以在10-100年的时间范围内应用到沙子，砾石，岩石和工程海岸，可以说明海岸线趋势以及变化性。该方法占：（1）沙丘的侵占/增加；（2）屏障回滚；（3）非易蚀层；（4）防波堤；（五）下岸运输；（六）沿岸旋转；（7）其他来源和汇。不确定性是通过使用概率分布进行输入和蒙特卡洛模拟来解决的。我们对英国的两个大潮潮进行了一次通过评估：Perranporth（桑迪，耗散，跨岸优势运输）和Start Bay（砾石，反射性，双向沿海优势），然后使用理想化剖面来调查英国的相对重要性强制控制海岸线的衰退和海滩宽度。对于耗散的沙质场地，沿海变化的主要模式被预测为短期风暴侵蚀和SLR转换，而长期趋势可能很重要，但高度不确定。对于反射性砾石场，主要模式是数十年的近岸沉积物通量，而次要的是近岸旋转和SLR平移。相对于ShoreTrans方法，Bruun规则低估了悬崖，海堤和回滚的低矮障碍物之前的海岸线衰退，并高估了存在大量易蚀沙丘的地方。ShoreTrans直接解决了海滩宽度的变化，预计海堤和悬崖前的海滩会缩小，因此狭窄的海滩（宽度小于50 m）可能会在1 m SLR下消失。作为独立工具，ShoreTrans可转移到许多海岸类型，并将为沿海从业人员提供简单的首过估计，以评估复杂轮廓的2D外观在SLR下如何发生变化。