Much of public policy-making has in recent decades been driven by the idea of evidence-based policy – policy rooted in the principles of social science and, more specifically, empirical validation based on social and behavioural science. This article argues that evidence-based policy, while helping to improve the design of policies aimed at changing individual behaviour, lacks a recognition that individual and group choices are embedded in social relationships and institutions. There is a risk of over-relying not only on probabilistic models that under-state our condition of ‘radical uncertainty’ but also on data and metrics that are disconnected from the everyday experience of workers and citizens whose needs and interests cannot always be measured or managed. Since uncertainty is a fundamental reality of both the economy and social life, policy-making needs robust conceptual narratives to make sense of numbers and provide a sound basis on which to make decisions allied to ethical judgements.

中文翻译：

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重新思考循证政策

近几十年来，许多公共政策制定都受到循证政策理念的推动——政策植根于社会科学原则，更具体地说，是基于社会和行为科学的经验验证。本文认为，循证政策虽然有助于改进旨在改变个人行为的政策设计，但缺乏对个人和群体选择嵌入社会关系和制度的认识。存在过度依赖概率模型的风险，这些模型低估了我们“极端不确定性”的状况，而且过度依赖与工人和公民的日常经验脱节的数据和指标，他们的需求和利益不能总是被衡量或衡量。管理。由于不确定性是经济和社会生活的基本现实，