Knowledge of spatial patterns of climatically suitable habitats, and species range contractions/expansions, or shifts due to changing climate are important to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tools currently available for evaluating species’ response to anthropogenic or natural changes. We used ENMs to evaluate potential effects of future climate changes on the distribution range of a keystone pollinator, Apis florea Fabricius 1787 (Apidae: Apini), across its native range. We also provided a picture of the potential paleodistribution range of this species to complement future genetic/phylogenetic studies. In all assessed scenarios (i.e past, current, and future), the species was limited to its current native range and the mean temperature of the coldest season was the most key determinative factor affecting the species’ climate niche. The projection results revealed that the extent of climatically suitable habitats of the species was probably more than current in the past time periods and will increase in the future. Our findings of the consequences of climate changes on geographical distributions of this pollinator facilitate future management efforts for the species conservation by the identification of potential habitats where A. florea may already exist, prioritizing key habitats within the species’ native range under the current and future conditions, and recognizing regions where it is likely to spread its range.

了解气候适宜栖息地的空间格局、物种范围收缩/扩张或气候变化引起的变化对于提高保护工作的有效性很重要。生态位模型 (ENM) 是目前可用于评估物种对人为或自然变化的反应的主要工具。我们使用 ENM 来评估未来气候变化对关键传粉媒介Apis florea分布范围的潜在影响Fabricius 1787 (Apidae: Apini)，在其原生范围内。我们还提供了该物种潜在古分布范围的图片，以补充未来的遗传/系统发育研究。在所有评估的情景（即过去、现在和未来）中，该物种仅限于其当前的原生范围，最冷季节的平均温度是影响该物种气候生态位的最关键决定因素。预测结果显示，该物种的气候适宜栖息地范围在过去时期可能超过当前，并且在未来会增加。我们对气候变化对这种传粉媒介地理分布的影响的研究结果通过识别潜在的栖息地促进了未来的物种保护管理工作A. florea可能已经存在，在当前和未来条件下优先考虑该物种原生范围内的关键栖息地，并识别可能扩展其范围的区域。