Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations with reliable testing data. Cumulative cases and deaths through 22 December 2020 are estimated to be 7.03 and 1.44 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.51 percent, which has been declining over time. Absent adherence fatigue, cumulative cases would have been 47 percent lower. Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14 percent, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date. Variations in responsiveness to risk explain two orders of magnitude difference in per-capita deaths despite reproduction numbers fluctuating around one across nations. A public online simulator facilitates scenario analysis over the coming months. © 2021 System Dynamics Society.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19的行为动态：估算92个国家/地区的漏报，多次波动和依从性疲劳

要有效应对COVID-19大流行，需要整合行为因素，例如降低风险驱动的接触，改善治疗以及依从性疲劳和无症状传播，疾病敏锐度和住院能力。我们建立了一个这样的模型，并使用可靠的测试数据对所有92个国家/地区进行了估算。到2020年12月22日，累计病例和死亡人数估计为官方报告的7.03和1.44倍，感染致死率（IFR）为0.51％，并且随着时间的推移而下降。如果没有依从性疲劳，累计病例将减少47％。到2021年6月的情景表明，响应能力的适度改善可以使病例和死亡人数减少约14％，超过在该日期之前为一半人口接种疫苗的影响。尽管各国之间的繁殖数量上下波动，但对风险的反应能力的差异解释了人均死亡人数的两个数量级差异。一个公共的在线模拟器可以促进未来几个月的情景分析。©2021系统动力学学会。