About $450 billion were donated to U.S. nonprofits in 2019 according to the most recently available data (Giving USA Foundation 2020). However, despite the increases in charitable dollars, the share of households that donate has been declining: in 2000, 67 percent of American households donated to nonprofits, but in 2016, only 53 percent of American households donated (Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy 2019). This trend in decreasing share of U.S. households that donate to charitable causes pre-dates the passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), but could be accelerated by the recent policy changes. TCJA significantly changed federal tax policy and these changes are expected to affect charitable giving (Brill and Choe 2018; Ricco 2018; Rooney et al. 2017). Nonprofit leaders, as well as policymakers, have been exploring additional policy proposals to offset the potential negative impact on charitable giving. This paper investigates the estimated effects of potential policy proposals on charitable giving, donor incidence rates, and Treasury revenue. This study used the Penn Wharton Budget Model (Penn 2019a, 2019b) to run microsimulations of the effects of five tax policy proposals on charitable giving dollars, the number of households that donate, and the forgone Treasury revenue. The five proposals included: a non-itemizer charitable deduction; a non-itemizer charitable deduction with a cap; a non-itemizer charitable deduction with a floor; an enhanced non-itemizer charitable deduction, which provides a higher value deduction for low- and middle-income households; and a non-itemizer non-refundable 25 percent charitable giving tax credit. Of the five policy options analyzed, providing a non-refundable 25% charitable giving tax credit to non-itemizers has the largest positive impact, increasing both the amount of charitable giving dollars ($37 billion in 2018 dollars) and the number of donor households (10.6 million) of the five policy options analyzed. However, it is also the most “expensive” proposal (measured in terms of forgone Treasury revenue) for United States (U.S.) Treasury revenue (−$33.0 billion). Four of the five policy proposals bring in more charitable dollars than are lost in Treasury revenue. Four of the five policy proposals bring in more charitable dollars than were projected to have been lost as a result of TCJA. All five proposals bring in more donor households that were expected to be lost as a result of TCJA. This paper is based on a published report written and researched by [school] in partnership with the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and commissioned by Independent Sector. The report, “Charitable Giving and Tax Incentives Estimating changes in charitable dollars and number of donors resulting from five policy proposals,” can be found at this link: http://hdl.handle.net/1805/19515.

中文翻译：

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五种不同的税收政策变化对美国家庭供养的影响

根据最新数据（Giving USA Foundation 2020），2019年向美国非营利组织捐赠了约4,500亿美元。但是，尽管慈善捐款增加了，但捐赠家庭的比例却在下降：2000年，有67％的美国家庭向非营利组织捐赠，但在2016年，只有53％的美国家庭捐赠了（印第安纳大学礼来慈善家庭学校2019）。美国家庭向慈善事业捐款的比例下降的趋势早于2017年《减税和就业法案》（TCJA）的通过，但最近的政策变化可能会加速这种趋势。TCJA大大改变了联邦税收政策，预计这些变化将影响慈善捐赠（Brill and Choe 2018; Ricco 2018; Rooney et al.2017）。非营利组织领导人以及政策制定者，一直在探索其他政策建议，以抵消对慈善捐赠的潜在负面影响。本文研究了潜在政策建议对慈善捐赠，捐助者发生率和国库收入的估计影响。这项研究使用Penn Wharton预算模型（Penn 2019a，2019b）对五种税收政策建议对慈善捐赠美元，捐赠家庭数量以及已放弃的财政收入的影响进行了微观模拟。这五项建议包括：非项目慈善减免；带有上限的非项目慈善捐款；有底数的非项目慈善捐款；增强的非减免性慈善扣除，为中低收入家庭提供更高的价值扣除；以及25％的不可退款慈善机构给予税收抵免。在分析的五种政策选择中，向非项目提供者提供不可退还的25％慈善捐赠税收抵免具有最大的积极影响，既增加了慈善捐赠的金额（2018年为370亿美元），也增加了捐赠家庭的数量（分析的五个政策选择中的1,060万）。但是，这也是美国（US）美国国库收入（330亿美元）中最“昂贵”的建议（以已放弃的国库收入衡量）。五项政策提案中的四项带来的慈善捐款多于国库收入的损失。五项政策提案中的四项带来的慈善捐款多于TCJA所造成的损失。所有这五个提案带来了更多的捐助户，这些捐助户预计将因TCJA而丢失。本文基于[学校]与宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院合作并受独立部门委托撰写和研究的已发表报告。可以在以下链接上找到报告“慈善捐赠和税收激励措施，以估算由五项政策提案导致的慈善捐赠金额和捐赠者数量的变化”：http：//hdl.handle.net/1805/19515。