We explore the behavior of the divorce rates in 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2010. Many studies have found persistence in divorce rates after changes in divorce laws. We formulate a nonlinear model to explain the behavior of divorce rates, over time, after a large change in divorce rate, including changes in divorce laws. We argue that the stationary smooth transition regression (STR) approach is useful in analyzing divorce rates. We reject the persistence result and, in addition, provide evidence on asymmetries in divorce rates. This suggests that one should be careful when interpreting the effects of the changes in divorce rates (especially changes in the divorce and family laws) on divorce rates.

中文翻译：

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离婚率的行为：平滑过渡回归方法

我们探讨了1960-2010年间OECD国家中17个国家的离婚率。许多研究发现，离婚法改变后，离婚率仍然存在。在离婚率发生较大变化（包括离婚律的变化）之后，我们制定了一个非线性模型来解释离婚率随时间的变化。我们认为平稳平稳过渡回归（STR）方法可用于分析离婚率。我们拒绝坚持的结果，此外，提供离婚率不对称的证据。这表明，在解释离婚率变化（尤其是离婚和家庭法的变化）对离婚率的影响时，应格外小心。