Examining data for the 10 Olympic Games contested this century, we ask whether confirmation bias exists in judged events. We theorize that if such bias is present, then competitors in judged events should perform closer to predicted than competitors in non-judged events. Among a sample of over 5100 predicted medalists from the 10 Games, we find that, all else equal, the differences between ex-ante conventional wisdom and ex-post observed outcome are larger for competitors in timed events than for competitors in judged events. These results suggest that confirmation bias does potentially exist for judged events at the Olympic Games.

中文翻译：

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奥运会的裁判项目中是否存在确认偏见？

检查本世纪竞赛的10届奥运会的数据，我们询问在已判定的赛事中是否存在确认偏差。我们认为，如果存在这种偏见，则与未判定事件相比，判定事件中的竞争者的表现应更接近于预期。在来自10届奥运会的5100多名预期奖牌获得者的样本中，我们发现，在所有其他条件相同的情况下，计时事件中的参赛者在事前传统智慧与事后观察到的结果之间的差异要比在评判项目中的选手大。这些结果表明，对于奥运会上的裁判事件确实存在确认偏差。