We investigate the extent to which OPEC has succeeded in its self-stated mission of stabilising the oil market and the implications for the world’s economy. We discuss the modelling framework developed by Pierru, Smith and Zamrik (2018) and Pierru, Smith and Almutairi (2020) and update their analyses. Unstabilised monthly oil prices that would have prevailed in the absence of OPEC’s spare capacity policy are determined for the September 2001–June 2020 period. Overall, OPEC’s management of spare capacity has significantly decreased the monthly volatility of the oil price. Three subperiods (commodity boom, market-share campaign, OPEC+) can, however, be distinguished in terms of the impact on price volatility. The annual value of OPEC’s spare capacity to the world’s economy is estimated to be 193.1 billion in 2019 US dollars.

中文翻译：

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欧佩克闲置产能对石油市场和全球经济的价值

我们调查了欧佩克在其自称的稳定石油市场的使命中取得成功的程度以及对世界经济的影响。我们讨论了 Pierru、Smith 和 Zamrik（2018 年）以及 Pierru、Smith 和 Almutairi（2020 年）开发的建模框架并更新了他们的分析。在 2001 年 9 月至 2020 年 6 月期间确定在没有欧佩克备用产能政策的情况下会出现不稳定的月度油价。总体而言，欧佩克对闲置产能的管理显着降低了油价的月度波动。然而，可以根据对价格波动的影响区分三个子时期（商品繁荣、市场份额运动、欧佩克+）。2019年欧佩克闲置产能对世界经济的年价值估计为1931亿美元。