We analyze uncertainty and financial development effects on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using a global sample of 116 countries over 1996 2017. Our main findings are that countries with a higher level of economic policy uncertainty receive lower FDI inflows. Moreover, although countries with a higher level of financial market development attract more FDI inflows, domestic uncertainty, even in the presence of more developed financial markets, remains a drag and hence discourages FDI inflows. To further support our results, we analyze three subsamples: low- and lower-middle income, upper-middle income, and high-income countries. For these sub-samples, we show that as uncertainty increases, FDI inflows allocate away from lower-income economies to more stable higher income countries, reflecting the so-called safe haven effect where foreign investors avoid unstable and risky countries. Our findings contribute to better understanding of the interplay among uncertainty (“risk”), FDI, and the host country’s level of financial development.

我们使用1996年至2017年的116个国家的全球样本分析了不确定性和金融发展对外国直接投资（FDI）流入的影响。我们的主要发现是，经济政策不确定性较高的国家接受的外国直接投资较少。此外，尽管金融市场发展水平较高的国家吸引了更多的外国直接投资流入，但是即使在金融市场更加发达的情况下，国内的不确定性仍然是一个障碍，因此阻碍了外国直接投资的流入。为了进一步支持我们的结果，我们分析了三个子样本：中低收入和中低收入，中上收入和高收入国家。对于这些子样本，我们表明，随着不确定性的增加，外国直接投资的流入从低收入经济体分配到了较稳定的高收入国家，反映了所谓的避风港效应，即外国投资者避开不稳定和高风险的国家。我们的发现有助于更好地理解不确定性（“风险”），外国直接投资和东道国金融发展水平之间的相互作用。