In what might be called the ‘austerity-driven hypothesis’, a consistent strand of literature has sought to explain the prison downsizing witnessed in many jurisdictions of the global north over the past decade by referring to the financial crisis of the late 2000s to early 2010s and its effects in terms of public spending cuts. Since this economic phase is essentially over, whereas the (moderate) decarceration turn is still ongoing, there are good reasons to challenge this hypothesis. This article delves into the non-economic forces that are fostering a prison population decline that, 10 years on, is becoming the new ‘penal normal’. The article thereby aims to spark a dialogue not only with the scholarship exploring the prison downsizing but also with certain theoretical frameworks that have played a key role in examining the punitive turn era. Additionally, the article contributes to the conversation on the need to reframe materialist readings on penality in a ‘non-reductionist’ fashion. By revisiting heterodox theses and scrutinizing the impact of recent penal changes on traditional materialist accounts, the article joins the collective endeavour seeking to update political economic perspectives on punishment and the penal field.

在所谓的“紧缩驱动假设”中，一连串的文献试图通过参考2000年代末至2010年代初的金融危机，来解释过去十年来全球北部许多司法管辖区目睹的监狱缩编。及其对削减公共开支的影响。由于这个经济阶段已经基本结束，而（适度的）解除监禁的过渡仍在进行中，因此有充分的理由对这一假设提出质疑。本文深入探讨了导致监狱人口下降的非经济力量，这种下降已持续了10年，正在成为新的“刑法”。因此，本文旨在引发对话，不仅与探索缩小监狱规模的奖学金，而且还与某些理论框架对话，这些框架在考察惩罚性转向时代方面发挥了关键作用。此外，本文还有助于讨论以“非还原论”方式重新组织唯物主义对刑罚的理解。通过回顾不同寻常的论断，并仔细研究最近的刑法变化对传统唯物主义账目的影响，本文加入了集体努力，寻求更新关于刑罚和刑法领域的政治经济学观点。