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Tornado wind hazard mapping and equivalent tornado design wind profile for Canada
Structural Safety ( IF 5.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2021.102078
H.P. Hong , Q. Huang , W.J. Jiang , Q. Tang , P. Jarrett

Tornadoes cause property damage and fatalities. A systematic assessment of tornado wind velocity hazard is presented in the present study for Canada based on reported historical tornado catalogue. For the assessment, the Poisson model, zero-inflated Poisson model, and negative binomial model, as well as the adaptive Gaussian kernel smoothing technique, are used to model tornado occurrence. The modeling takes into account the tornado reporting bias due to population density and uses the cloud-to-ground lightning flash density and the thunderstorm days as the explanatory variables. Statistical analysis results indicate that the negative binomial model is preferable.

The tornado wind velocity hazard maps for Canada, in terms of wind velocity at 10 m height above the ground surface and return period T, VT(10), are developed based on an available probabilistic tornado wind field model. Also, a simple equivalent tornado design wind profile is developed based on the return period value of tornado wind speed at different heights. The developed tornado design wind profile only depends on VT(10), which greatly facilitates its potential use for structural design subjected to tornado wind load and its possible implementation in structural design code and standards.



中文翻译:

加拿大的龙卷风风灾图和等效龙卷风设计风廓线

龙卷风会造成财产损失和死亡。基于报告的历史龙卷风目录,本研究针对加拿大提出了对龙卷风风速危害的系统评估。为了进行评估,使用了Poisson模型,零膨胀Poisson模型和负二项式模型以及自适应高斯核平滑技术对龙卷风的发生进行建模。该模型考虑了由于人口密度造成的龙卷风报告偏差,并使用云对地闪电闪光密度和雷暴天数作为解释变量。统计分析结果表明,负二项式模型是优选的。

基于可用的概率龙卷风风场模型,开发了加拿大的龙卷风风灾危害图,以高于地面10 m的风速和返回周期TV T(10)表示。此外,基于不同高度的龙卷风风速的返回周期值,开发了一种简单的等效龙卷风设计风廓线。开发的龙卷风设计风廓线仅取决于V T(10),这极大地促进了其在承受龙卷风风荷载的结构设计中的潜在用途以及在结构设计规范和标准中的可能实现。

更新日期:2021-03-15
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