Introduction

We are just beginning to be able to detect the policy implications and public health effects of changes in marijuana laws and consumption in the United States on motor vehicle related fatalities. Most studies to date use classical regression methods to study these and are thus susceptible to both model and parameter uncertainty. This study examines the associations between marijuana and motor vehicle fatality rates taking these two issues of uncertainty into account using Bayesian sturdy-values, i.e., s-values.

Method

This study utilizes a new balanced panel dataset across all states and Washington, D.C. for the period 2010 to 2016 in the context of linear models using Bayesian s-values. It addresses the association between marijuana and alcohol consumption along with the legal environment across states and through time on crash fatalities. Other important factors such as the distractive influence of cell phones are studied. The s-value approach considers a vast number of model specifications and provides robust policy guidelines.

Results

A strong association between marijuana and alcohol use on motor vehicle crash rates is found. The statistical results are both substantial and robust, i.e., non-fragile. Other important variables include cell phone use, seat belt use, speed limit laws, and fleet modernization.

Conclusion

Our results have found strong evidence of a life-taking relationship between marijuana use and vehicle crashes. This suggests that policy makers recognize that legislation liberalizing marijuana use may have tragic ramifications regarding motor vehicle fatalities.

中文翻译：

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大麻与机动车碰撞之间的关联

介绍

我们才刚刚开始能够发现大麻法律的变化和美国的消费对机动车相关死亡的政策影响以及对公共健康的影响。迄今为止，大多数研究都使用经典回归方法来研究这些方法，因此容易受到模型和参数不确定性的影响。这项研究使用贝叶斯坚固值（即s值），考虑了这两个不确定性问题，研究了大麻与机动车死亡率之间的关联。

方法

这项研究在使用贝叶斯s值的线性模型的背景下，利用了2010年至2016年期间所有州和华盛顿特区的新平衡面板数据集。它解决了大麻和酒精消费之间的关联，以及各州的法律环境以及因事故死亡造成的时间损失。研究了其他重要因素，例如手机的干扰因素。S值方法考虑了大量模型规范，并提供了可靠的策略准则。

结果

发现大麻和酒精使用与机动车碰撞率之间有很强的联系。统计结果既实质又稳健，即不脆弱。其他重要变量包括手机使用，安全带使用，限速法则和车队现代化。

结论

我们的结果找到了强有力的证据，证明大麻使用与车辆撞车之间存在着致命的关系。这表明政策制定者认识到，放开大麻使用的立法可能会对机动车死亡造成悲剧性后果。