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Selection and Modification of Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Makran Subduction Zone, Southeast Iran
Pure and Applied Geophysics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s00024-021-02690-6
H. Zafarani , M. R. Soghrat

The Iranian Plateau is considered mostly as a shallow crustal area, except the Makran region in southeast Iran where subduction events can occur. Because of the tectonic characteristics of the Makran subduction zone, different categories of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are required for seismic hazard assessment, including GMPEs for shallow crustal events and subduction zone earthquakes (both in-slab and interface events). To show the applicability of candidate GMPEs, a selected dataset consisting of 314 records from 80 earthquakes is used for statistical analyses and modification of the candidate GMPEs. The earthquakes in the studied area are classified into two groups: shallow (events with focal depth less than 40 km; including 67 events and 210 records) and in-slab (events with focal depth more than 40 km; 13 events and 104 records). There are no recorded instrumental data in the region for the interface earthquakes. About ten GMPEs (developed based on local, regional, and global data) for shallow earthquakes are initial candidates for selection and modification in the studied region. In addition, four relationships are used in the statistical analyses for in-slab events. Different statistical analyses have been applied to show the performance of GMPEs and their applicability for the region. The results show that the modification term applied in the GMPEs improved the applicability of the relations significantly. The results are very important for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Makran region and other neighborhood countries, i.e., Oman and United Arab Emirates. Finally, a new model for vertical-to-horizontal spectral ratio has been proposed for the studied region that helps us to obtain vertical design spectra from horizontal spectra and their predominant scenarios resulting from seismic hazard analyses.



中文翻译:

伊朗东南部Makran俯冲带地震动预测方程的选择和修正

除伊朗东南部的马克兰地区可能发生俯冲事件外,伊朗高原大部分被认为是浅海地壳区。由于Makran俯冲带的构造特征,地震危险性评估需要不同类别的地面运动预测方程(GMPE),包括用于浅地壳事件和俯冲带地震(板内和界面事件)的GMPE。为了显示候选GMPE的适用性,选择了一个包含来自80次地震的314条记录的数据集,用于统计分析和修改候选GMPE。研究区域的地震分为两类:浅层(震源深度小于40 km的事件;包括67个事件和210条记录)和板内地震(震源深度大于40 km的事件)和板内地震(震源超过40 km的事件)。13个事件和104条记录)。该地区没有记录界面地震的仪器数据。浅层地震大约有十个GMPE(根据本地,区域和全球数据开发)是研究区域选择和修改的初步候选对象。另外,在板内事件的统计分析中使用了四个关系。已经应用了不同的统计分析来显示GMPE的性能及其在该地区的适用性。结果表明,在GMPE中使用的修饰词显着提高了关系的适用性。该结果对于评估Makran地区和其他邻国(例如阿曼和阿拉伯联合酋长国)的地震危险性非常重要。最后,

更新日期:2021-03-15
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