Purpose

Previous research suggests that a CEO’s attitude can impact a firm’s performance. More particularly, there appears to be a link between the CEO’s revealed level of optimism and firm’s market value. The purpose of this paper is to measure the level of optimism revealed by Australian CEOs in their shareholder letters and compares this with their firms’ current and future valuations.

Design/methodology/approach

This study assesses the CEO’s level of optimism using text analysis of the annual letters to shareholders in 180 Australian-based firms from 2010 to 2013. The market valuation of their companies over the same period is calculated using Tobin’s Q, and the results compared with the level of CEO optimism.

Findings

Comparing the level of revealed optimism with their firms’ valuations over four years, CEO optimism is positively correlated, both currently and prospectively with firm valuation. Given the period under study immediately followed the global financial crisis (GFC), the results suggest CEO optimism may be an important factor in adding to firm’s market resilience.

Research limitations/implications

The study examines the link between revealed CEO optimism and firm valuation over a turbulent period of the business cycle. While the sample period follows the GFC, and Tobin’s Q has some known deficiencies, the results imply that further research should be undertaken to examine the importance of CEOs tone and communicated attitudes on their firms’ financial outcomes.

Practical implications

The link between CEO optimism and the firm’s valuation suggest that shareholders and boards should pay particular attention to the values, cognitions and psychological and demographic characteristics of top executives when selecting CEOs. In particular, the results suggest that given two otherwise similar CEOs the one whose record of communication is optimistic should be preferred over a similarly qualified but less sanguine individual.

Originality/value

The paper represents the first study demonstrating the link between CEO’s communicated optimism and Australian firms’ valuations. The study uses three different measures of optimism to improve the robustness of its conclusions, and a comprehensive measure of firm value – Tobin’s Q. It is the first to quantify the association between CEO optimism and firm value shortly after a period of financial upheaval (the GFC). The findings indicate that CEO optimism contributes significantly to firm value. The study also tests whether “excessive” optimism negatively impacts firm performance and conclude there is no evidence of this in the sample period. The study suggests that more research should be done to examine the contribution of positive business attitudes to periods of economic stress.

中文翻译：

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“往好的方面看”：CEO的乐观情绪和公司的市场估值

目的

先前的研究表明，CEO 的态度会影响公司的绩效。更具体地说，CEO 所表现出的乐观程度与公司的市场价值之间似乎存在联系。本文的目的是衡量澳大利亚首席执行官在其股东信中所表现出的乐观程度，并将其与公司当前和未来的估值进行比较。

设计/方法/方法

本研究通过对 180 家澳大利亚公司 2010 年至 2013 年致股东的年度信函的文本分析来评估 CEO 的乐观程度。 CEO 的乐观程度。

发现

将表现出的乐观程度与其公司四年来的估值进行比较，CEO 乐观与公司估值正相关，无论是当前还是未来。鉴于所研究的时期紧随全球金融危机 (GFC) 之后，结果表明 CEO 的乐观情绪可能是增加公司市场弹性的重要因素。

研究限制/影响

该研究考察了在商业周期动荡时期表现出的 CEO 乐观情绪与公司估值之间的联系。虽然样本期遵循全球金融危机，并且托宾 Q 有一些已知的缺陷，但结果意味着应该进行进一步的研究，以检查 CEO 的语气和沟通态度对其公司财务结果的重要性。

实际影响

CEO 乐观情绪与公司估值之间的联系表明，股东和董事会在选择 CEO 时应特别关注高管的价值观、认知以及心理和人口统计学特征。尤其是，结果表明，如果有两位相似的 CEO，那么沟通记录乐观的 CEO 应该比同样合格但不那么乐观的人更受青睐。

原创性/价值

该论文代表了第一项研究，展示了 CEO 所传达的乐观情绪与澳大利亚公司估值之间的联系。该研究使用三种不同的乐观衡量标准来提高其结论的稳健性，并使用一种综合衡量公司价值的方法——Tobin's Q。它是第一个量化 CEO 乐观与公司价值在一段金融动荡期后不久的关联的研究（ GFC）。研究结果表明，CEO 的乐观态度对公司价值有显着贡献。该研究还测试了“过度”乐观是否会对公司业绩产生负面影响，并得出结论，在样本期内没有证据表明这一点。该研究表明，应该做更多的研究来检查积极的商业态度对经济压力时期的贡献。