Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial development (FD) and monetary policy effectiveness (MPE) on output and inflation in ASEAN-3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines).

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses an open economy structural vector autoregressive model to generate MPE. Then, an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effect of FD on MPE across countries.

Findings

The findings revealed that FD plays a different role in MPE across countries. In Malaysia, a more developed financial system tends to reduce the MPE on output, whereas in Singapore, results show that the more developed financial system (stock market capitalization) tends to increase MPE on output. However, in the Philippines, the main results show that the effect of FD (liquid liabilities) upon MPE on output is depending on the policy variable (interest rates or money supply).

Originality/value

This paper fills this gap by providing the first study of ASEAN-3 countries in examining how effective is a monetary policy in response to the development of the financial market across the country. Second, this paper considers two FD indicators, namely, the banking sector and capital market development in investigating its effect on MPE on output and inflation. Third, the authors construct the MPE in each country using a structural (identified) VAR model by aggregating the response of output growth and inflation rate on monetary policy changes (interest rate and money supply) using impulse–response function. Regarding this, the results of this study provide new empirical evidence and insight into the long debate on the relationship between FD and the MPE.

中文翻译：

---

金融发展与货币政策有效性的关系：来自东盟3国的新证据

目的

本文旨在研究东盟 3 国（新加坡、马来西亚和菲律宾）的金融发展 (FD) 与货币政策有效性 (MPE) 对产出和通胀的关系。

设计/方法/方法

本研究使用开放经济结构向量自回归模型来生成 MPE。然后，使用自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型来分析 FD 对各国 MPE 的影响。

发现

研究结果表明，FD 在不同国家的 MPE 中发挥着不同的作用。在马来西亚，更发达的金融体系往往会降低产出的 MPE，而在新加坡，结果表明更发达的金融体系（股票市值）往往会增加产出的 MPE。然而，在菲律宾，主要结果表明 FD（流动负债）对 MPE 对产出的影响取决于政策变量（利率或货币供应量）。

原创性/价值

本文通过提供对东盟 3 国的首次研究来填补这一空白，以检验货币政策在应对全国金融市场发展方面的有效性。其次，本文考虑两个FD指标，即银行业和资本市场发展，研究其对MPE对产出和通胀的影响。第三，作者通过使用脉冲响应函数汇总产出增长和通货膨胀率对货币政策变化（利率和货币供应量）的响应，使用结构性（已识别）VAR 模型构建每个国家的 MPE。对此，本研究的结果为关于 FD 与 MPE 之间关系的长期争论提供了新的经验证据和见解。