Purpose

The article develops a model to interpret the 2010–2018 financial crisis in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus, and the loan programs from the IL (International Lender; i.e. the European Union, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund).

Design/methodology/approach

For each country, an isoelastic utility with constant relative risk aversion is assumed. For the IL a Cobb Douglas utility is assumed with consumption, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to debt ratio, and market stability as inputs, accounting for time discounting. This article applies two methods to assess the empirics. The first method considers the IL's strategy as a whole over the 2010–2018 period. The second method assumes that the IL maximizes its utility in one period to determine its optimal loan, accounting for the empirics in that period, and the debt in the previous period.

Findings

For the first method, when the output elasticity in the IL's Cobb Douglas utility is high favoring consumption, the IL prefers offering a higher loan than its actual loan. Otherwise the IL prefers to offer no loan. The output elasticity at which the IL prefers to offer a loan is lowest for Greece, second lowest for Cyprus, third lowest for Portugal, and highest for Ireland and Spain. A high loan to Greece over a larger range of the output elasticity for Greece's consumption is supported by Greece being prioritized through the loan program. For the second method, the IL prefers to offer no loan to Greece which is too burdened with debt. Thus, the first method seems preferable, considering the entire duration of the crisis holistically.

Originality/value

The article offers a novel perspective of how to assess debt crises, enabling the IL to weigh various factors such as consumption, GDP, loan offered, and each country's debt to credit markets.

中文翻译：

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评估希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、西班牙和塞浦路斯 2010-2018 年的金融危机

目的

本文开发了一个模型来解释 2010-2018 年希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、西班牙和塞浦路斯的金融危机，以及来自 IL（国际贷款机构；即欧盟、欧盟委员会和国际货币基金组织）的贷款计划.

设计/方法/方法

对于每个国家，假设具有恒定的相对风险规避的等弹性效用。对于 IL，假设 Cobb Douglas 效用以消费、GDP（国内生产总值）与债务比率和市场稳定性作为输入，考虑了时间贴现。本文采用两种方法来评估经验。第一种方法将 IL 在 2010-2018 年期间的整体战略考虑在内。第二种方法假设 IL 在一个时期内最大化其效用以确定其最佳贷款，考虑该时期的经验和前一时期的债务。

发现

对于第一种方法，当 IL 的 Cobb Douglas 效用的产出弹性非常有利于消费时，IL 更愿意提供比实际贷款更高的贷款。否则，IL 宁愿不提供贷款。IL 倾向于提供贷款的产出弹性是希腊最低的，塞浦路斯第二低，葡萄牙第三低，爱尔兰和西班牙最高。在希腊消费的更大产出弹性范围内向希腊提供高额贷款是由希腊通过贷款计划得到优先支持的。对于第二种方法，IL 宁愿不向债务负担过重的希腊提供贷款。因此，从整体上考虑危机的整个持续时间，第一种方法似乎更可取。

原创性/价值

这篇文章提供了如何评估债务危机的新视角，使 IL 能够权衡各种因素，例如消费、GDP、提供的贷款以及每个国家对信贷市场的债务。