Purpose

What is the future of work going to look like? The aim of this paper is to show how the sociology of expectations (SE) – which deals with the power of visions – can make important contributions in terms of thinking about this issue by critically evaluating the dominant expert positions related to the future-of-employment- and artificial intelligence (AI) debate.

Design/methodology/approach

After providing a literature review regarding SE, an approach based on the latter is applied to interpret the dominant ideal-type expert positions in the future of work debate to illustrate the value of this perspective.

Findings

Dominant future scripts can be characterized by a focus on the effects of AI technology that give agency to technology and to the future, involve the hype of expectations with polarized frames, and obscure uncertainty. It is argued that these expectations can have significant consequences. They contribute to the closing off of alternative pathways to the future by making some conversations possible, while hindering others. In order to advance understanding, more sophisticated theorizing is needed which goes beyond these positions and which takes uncertainty and the mutual shaping of technology and society into account – including the role expectations play.

Research limitations/implications

The study asserts that the dominant positions contain problematic assumptions. It makes suggestions for helping move beyond these current framings of the debate theoretically. It also argues that scenario building and backcasting are two tools that could help move forward thinking about the future of work – especially if this is done in a way so as to build strongly on SE.

Practical implications

The arguments presented herein enhance sense-making in relation to the future-of-work debate, and can contribute to policy development.

Originality/value

There is a lack of adequate exploration of the role of visions related to AI and their consequences. This paper attempts to address this gap by applying an SE approach and emphasizing the performative force of visions.

中文翻译：

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人工智能和工作的未来——来自期望社会学的教训

目的

未来的工作会是什么样子？本文的目的是展示期望社会学（SE）——处理愿景的力量——如何通过批判性地评估与未来相关的主导专家立场，在思考这个问题方面做出重要贡献——就业和人工智能 (AI) 辩论。

设计/方法/方法

在提供有关 SE 的文献综述后，基于后者的方法被应用于解释未来工作辩论中占主导地位的理想型专家职位，以说明该观点的价值。

发现

未来占主导地位的脚本的特点是关注人工智能技术的影响，这些技术赋予技术和未来代理权，涉及两极分化框架的期望炒作，以及模糊的不确定性。有人认为，这些期望会产生重大后果。它们通过使某些对话成为可能，同时阻碍其他对话，从而有助于关闭通往未来的替代途径。为了促进理解，需要更复杂的理论，超越这些立场，并考虑不确定性以及技术和社会的相互塑造——包括预期所扮演的角色。

研究限制/影响

该研究断言，主导地位包含有问题的假设。它提出了一些建议，以帮助在理论上超越这些当前的辩论框架。它还认为，场景构建和回溯是两种工具，可以帮助推进对未来工作的思考——特别是如果这样做的方式是在 SE 上建立强大的基础。

实际影响

本文提出的论点增强了与未来工作辩论相关的意义，并有助于政策制定。

原创性/价值

缺乏对与人工智能相关的愿景的作用及其后果的充分探索。本文试图通过应用 SE 方法并强调视觉的表现力来解决这一差距。