Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the application of scenarios, as part of foresight process in the attempt to anticipate and understand the future vulnerabilities, trends and challenges for macro planning process.

Design/methodology/approach

The use of multidisciplinary knowledge, tools and methodologies with the aim of finding new solutions to the grand challenges faced by government have gained popularity in the Malaysian public sector. One of the tools gaining prominence is the use of scenario planning, where it has been widely used by both the public and private sectors to manage risk and develop robust strategic plans in face of uncertain future. The method is extensively applied by many corporations and multinationals particularly among international oil and gas organisations. In the public sector, scenarios have been effectively used in many areas and discipline to provide a broad and deep understanding and inclusive approach in formulation and development of policies.

Findings

This paper described the use of scenarios to understand the present and future of anti-corruption, as well as anticipate emerging areas of corruption, both within the government and its ecosystem. This led to the formulation of the national level policy on anti-corruption.

Research limitations/implications

The National Anti-Corruption Plan is an open and living document that will be continuously reviewed throughout its five years implementation duration. It is the reference document for ministries, agencies and governments-linked companies in Malaysia to develop their own Organisational Anti-Corruption Plan. Therefore, the document will be a strategic document for the Government of Malaysia to materialise their anti-corruption effort as a strategic conversation engagement with stakeholders that will provide new insights to the scenarios developed.

Practical implications

Often, policymakers begin the process of policy formulation through the identification of the problem statement, with hypothesis developed for the subject matter by project owners and stakeholders. Upon understanding the problems, efforts will then be made to identify solutions or strategies through deliberation by stakeholders. However, this direct approach may produce gaps and lack the required future robustness. The use of scenarios will ensure inclusiveness of approach, taking into consideration all present challenges, anticipating future need and trends that emerged in domestic, regional and international contexts.

Social implications

This paper addresses corruption by developing solutions that enable the government to solve present problem and to prevent future occurrences by anticipating incidents and areas of corruption; it is about proactive measures rather than reactive measures. This paper also emphasizes on a different perspective – looking at multiple lenses – understanding the systemic issues and interdependencies of anti-corruption challenges. The stakeholders then shift their lenses, narrowing the issues towards specific areas, from a broader perspective to a more focused perspective measure. This study ensures critical stakeholders’ involvement and buy-in; findings and suggested solutions are shared and tested amongst targeted groups. This will enable collective insights and shared responsibility for stakeholders in ensuring the success of the implementation of the plan.

Originality/value

The authors wish to highlight that reviews of various anti-corruption policy documents, especially in the Asia Pacific region were made. This was intended to highlight the significance of this paper and how it shows that the application of scenarios in formulation of a national level anti-corruption policy is unprecedented.

中文翻译：

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制定国家反腐败框架的方案规划

目的

本文的目的是探索情景的应用，作为预见过程的一部分，以期尝试并了解宏观规划过程的未来漏洞，趋势和挑战。

设计/方法/方法

为了寻求应对政府面临的巨大挑战的新解决方案，使用多学科知识，工具和方法已在马来西亚公共部门中广受欢迎。场景规划的使用是赢得人们关注的工具之一，在面对不确定的未来时，公共部门和私营部门已广泛使用它来管理风险和制定强有力的战略计划。该方法已被许多公司和跨国公司广泛采用，特别是在国际石油和天然气组织中。在公共部门，情景已在许多领域和学科中得到有效利用，以在制定和制定政策时提供广泛而深刻的理解和包容性方法。

发现

本文介绍了使用方案来了解反腐败的当前和未来，并预测了政府及其生态系统中腐败的新兴领域。这导致制定了国家反腐败政策。

研究局限/意义

《国家反腐败计划》是一个公开，有效的文件，将在其五年实施期间内对其进行持续审查。这是马来西亚各部委，机构和与政府相关的公司制定自己的组织反腐败计划的参考文件。因此，该文件将成为马来西亚政府落实其反腐败努力的战略文件，作为与利益相关者进行战略对话的契机，这将为制定的方案提供新的见解。

实际影响

通常，决策者通过确定问题陈述来开始制定政策的过程，并由项目所有者和利益相关者针对主题开发假设。了解问题后，将通过利益相关者的讨论来努力确定解决方案或策略。但是，这种直接方法可能会产生差距，并且缺乏所需的未来健壮性。设想方案的使用将确保方法的包容性，同时考虑到所有当前面临的挑战，预期在国内，区域和国际环境中出现的未来需求和趋势。

社会影响

本文通过制定解决方案来解决腐败问题，这些解决方案使政府能够通过预测事件和腐败领域来解决当前的问题并防止未来的事件发生；它是关于主动措施而不是被动措施。本文还着眼于不同的视角-从多个角度出发-了解系统性问题和反腐败挑战的相互依存关系。然后，利益相关者将他们的视角从更广阔的角度转向更集中的角度，将问题缩小到特定领域。这项研究确保了关键利益相关者的参与和认同。调查结果和建议的解决方案在目标群体之间共享和测试。

创意/价值

作者希望强调指出，已经对各种反腐败政策文件进行了审查，尤其是在亚太地区。这旨在突出本文的重要性，以及它如何表明方案在制定国家级反腐败政策中的应用是史无前例的。