Purpose

What causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.

Findings

The decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.

Originality/value

This survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

中文翻译：

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低利率的成因与挑战：从基本原理和最新文献中得出的见解

目的

是什么导致自1980年代以来主要发达经济体的实际利率下降趋势？货币政策的近零利率和通货膨胀率面临哪些挑战？决策者可以从货币和利率理论的最新发展中学到什么？本文旨在通过回顾利率确定的基本原理以及最近的学术和政策辩论来回答这些问题。

设计/方法/方法

该论文批判性地回顾了对近几十年来实际利率下降趋势以及在接近零利率环境下的货币政策选择的解释。

发现

实际利率的下降可能是多种技术，社会和经济因素的结果，其中包括生产力增长下降，人口结构变化，尾部风险担忧加剧，安全资产的时变便利收益率，全球对安全资产的需求增加，财富增加收入不平等，资本的相对价格下降，宽松的货币政策以及产业结构的变化，这些变化改变了公司部门的投资和储蓄行为。接近零的利率限制了央行应对经济危机的空间。这也挑战了货币理论的一些传统知识，并激起了有关货币政策的新思想。

创意/价值

这项调查与现有工作有所不同，因为它对经济学和金融文献有更广泛的了解。它通过基本原理和经验证据来严格评估推动全球实际利率下降的经济力量，并讨论每种拟议解释的优缺点。这项研究强调了更好地理解推动公司投资和储蓄行为发生变化趋势的经济力量的重要性。它还讨论了新费舍尔主义和价格水平的财政理论对低利率环境下货币政策的影响。