Purpose

The objective of this research was to determine the optimal age and pregnancy status for buying and selling replacement of beef females for risk-neutral and risk-averse producers.

Design/methodology/approach

A hedonic pricing model was estimated to measure how age, pregnancy status, breed and cull cow prices impact the sale price of these cattle. Data came from an annual heifer and cow sale in Tennessee between 2009 and 2018. A financial simulation model was developed to generate distributions of net present value (NPV) for buying replacement females at various ages and pregnancy status and then selling that female at various ages and pregnancy status.

Findings

The hedonic pricing model indicates sale prices were highest for five-year-old cows that were between four to five months pregnant. NPV was higher for buying heifers versus buying cows and for buying an open female versus a pregnant female. Regardless of age and pregnancy status when purchased, NPV was higher when the female was sold as pregnant prior to the end of her productive life. The risk analysis showed that risk aversion, buying older open cows and selling them as pregnant earlier in their productive life was preferred

Originality/value

This research offers unique insight into how pregnancy status and age at sale impacts the animal's NPV while considering risk. These results have implications for educating producers on purchasing and selling decisions of heifers and cows as well as for lenders who finance these purchases.

中文翻译：

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评估肉牛替代雌性的最佳采购和销售决策

目的

本研究的目的是为风险中性和规避风险的生产者确定购买和销售雌性牛肉替代品的最佳年龄和怀孕状态。

设计/方法/方法

一个享乐定价模型被估计来衡量年龄、怀孕状态、品种和淘汰奶牛的价格如何影响这些牛的销售价格。数据来自田纳西州 2009 年至 2018 年的年度小母牛和奶牛销售。开发了一个财务模拟模型来生成净现值 (NPV) 的分布，用于购买不同年龄和怀孕状态的替代母牛，然后出售不同年龄的母牛和怀孕状态。

发现

享乐定价模型表明，怀孕四到五个月的五岁奶牛的销售价格最高。购买小母牛与购买奶牛以及购买开放雌性与怀孕雌性的 NPV 更高。无论购买时的年龄和怀孕状态如何，当女性在其生产生活结束之前以怀孕的身份出售时，NPV 更高。风险分析表明，人们倾向于规避风险，购买年龄较大的开放式母牛，并在其生产生命的早期怀孕时将其出售。

原创性/价值

这项研究提供了独特的见解，了解怀孕状态和销售年龄如何在考虑风险的同时影响动物的 NPV。这些结果对教育生产者有关小母牛和奶牛的购买和销售决策以及为这些购买提供资金的贷方具有重要意义。