Purpose

High inflation levels remain a challenge in macroeconomic stabilization policies among developing economies. Oil price is identified as an important driver of inflation. In the wake of high and unstable international oil prices, the question regarding the relationship between inflation and crude oil prices, and its implication for economic welfare has become a fundamental empirical issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This question is explored by estimating a non-linear autoregressive distribution lags (NARDL) model of inflation-oil nexus that examined the asymmetric response of inflation to oil price changes. The study then derived the welfare implication of the asymmetric responses, with implications for the petroleum pricing regime in Ghana.

Findings

The study found that inflation responds asymmetrically to oil prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. The welfare cost associated with the asymmetric response increases with increasing rate.

Practical implications

The findings of this study have some implications for petroleum product pricing in Ghana. Recently, Ghana has moved from regulating petroleum prices to the automatic adjustment system. By this policy, petroleum prices change in tandem with the crude oil prices and exchange rates on the international market. Whiles this policy might be comparatively efficient, the evidence of asymmetric response of inflation to changes in oil prices raises some issues about the welfare effect of the policy.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the literature on the inflation-oil price nexus by investigating critical questions that remain puzzling. These questions include; Does inflation respond asymmetrically to the positive and negative shock of equal magnitude in oil prices? Does inflation response to the asymmetry changes in oil prices have any implications for the welfare of the country? Is the effect of oil price changes pernicious?

中文翻译：

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石油价格变化对通货膨胀的不对称影响以及对加纳的福利影响

目的

高通胀水平仍然是发展中经济体在宏观经济稳定政策中的挑战。石油价格被认为是通货膨胀的重要驱动力。在国际油价高企和不稳定之后，有关通货膨胀与原油价格之间的关系及其对经济福利的影响的问题已成为一个基本的经验问题。

设计/方法/方法

通过估计通货膨胀与油价之间的非线性自回归分布滞后（NARDL）模型来探讨该问题，该模型研究了通货膨胀对油价变化的非对称响应。然后，研究得出了不对称反应的福利含义，对加纳的石油定价制度具有影响。

发现

研究发现，长期来看，通货膨胀对油价的反应不对称，但短期内不一样。与不对称响应相关的福利成本随着速率的增加而增加。

实际影响

这项研究的发现对加纳的石油产品定价具有一定的意义。最近，加纳已从规范石油价格转向了自动调整系统。通过这项政策，石油价格与国际市场上的原油价格和汇率同时变化。尽管该政策可能是相对有效的，但通货膨胀对油价变化的不对称反应的证据提出了有关该政策的福利效应的一些问题。

创意/价值

本文通过研究仍然令人困惑的关键问题，为有关通货膨胀-油价关系的文献做出了贡献。这些问题包括：通货膨胀是否对油价同等大小的正面和负面冲击非对称地作出反应？通货膨胀对油价非对称变化的响应是否会对国家福利产生任何影响？石油价格变化的影响有害吗？