Purpose

The purpose is to establish the impact of trade on manufacturing employment in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

Two techniques, the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE), are applied on a panel dataset comprising 26 three-digit manufacturing industries with data observed between 1970 and 2016.

Findings

The impact of trade on employment is miniscule at best and insignificant at worst once the study controls for cross-sectional dependency. This is true for both skilled and unskilled workers. Employment of skilled workers is explained by remuneration while employment of unskilled workers is explained by output dynamics.

Practical implications

Trade is widely attacked for causing labour market disruption through job losses. This hypothesis is not supported by data for South Africa as no link is confirmed between trade and employment of skilled and unskilled workers.

Originality/value

Estimating the trade and employment link for skilled and unskilled workers while controlling for both endogeneity and cross-sectional dependency.

中文翻译：

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南非的贸易和工作：技术工人与非技术工人的案例

目的

目的是确定贸易对南非制造业就业的影响。

设计/方法/方法

汇集平均组（PMG）和动态共同相关效应（DCCE）这两种技术被应用到一个面板数据集上，该数据集包含26个三位数的制造业，其数据在1970年至2016年之间观察到。

发现

一旦研究控制了横断面依赖性，贸易对就业的影响充其量是微不足道的，而最坏的影响则微不足道。无论是熟练工人还是非熟练工人，都是如此。薪酬解释了熟练工人的雇用，而产出动态解释了非熟练工人的雇用。

实际影响

贸易因造成失业而导致劳动力市场混乱而受到广泛攻击。南非的数据不支持这一假设，因为在贸易与熟练工人和非熟练工人的就业之间未发现任何联系。

创意/价值

在控制内生性和横截面依赖性的同时，估算熟练和非熟练工人的贸易和就业联系。