The current study attempts to examine the linkage between government (public) spending and economic growth in the broader framework of selected South Asian Nations (SANs), BRICS and other emerging nations by using two sets of empirical modelling over the period 2007–2016 by using inverted U-shaped hypothesis, propounded by Armey curve (1995). The first set has employed system GMM technique to explore the presence of the Armey curve hypothesis using the square term of government size, while the second set has used the threshold regression using system GMM panel modelling to investigate the subsequent reversals (tipping point). The key findings signify the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship for the selected data set of emerging nations and, therefore, support the Armey curve hypothesis. The projected threshold (tipping) levels (as a percentage of GDP) are 24.31% for the government total expenditures (GTotExp), 12.92% for consumption spending (GConExp) and 7.11% for investment spending (GInvExp). It has been observed that a rise in the public spending (size) resulted in a substantial increase (decrease) in the growth rate when the public spending was before (after) the optimal threshold level, indicating a non-monotonic association. The findings of the study also suggest a policy implication that public spending could only be a short-term measure to deal with crises in any nation, but not a long-term solution.

JEL Classification: C23, C33, E60, E62, H00, H50, O40, O50

本研究试图通过使用2007-2016年间的两组经验模型，在选定的南亚国家（SAN），金砖国家和其他新兴国家的更广泛框架中，研究政府（公共）支出与经济增长之间的联系。倒U形假说，由Armey曲线（1995）提出。第一组使用系统GMM技术使用政府规模的平方项来探索Armey曲线假设的存在，而第二组使用系统GMM面板建模使用阈值回归来研究随后的逆转（临界点）。关键发现表明新兴国家的选定数据集存在倒U形关系，因此支持阿米曲线假说。预计的门槛（小费）水平（占GDP的百分比）是政府总支出（GTotExp）的24.31％，消费支出（GConExp）的12.92％和投资支出（GInvExp）的7.11％。已经观察到，当公共支出在最佳阈值水平之前（之后）时，公共支出（规模）的增加会导致增长率的大幅增加（减少），表明存在非单调关联。这项研究的发现还暗示了一种政策含义，即公共支出只能是应对任何国家危机的短期措施，而不是长期解决方案。

JEL分类：C23，C33，E60，E62，H00，H50，O40，O50