Economic theory suggests that variations in marginal tax rates are more important for consumption and investment decisions than the average rates commonly studied. This article analyzes the aggregate implications of the statutory tax code, using a new times series on annual marginal tax rates, which decomposes the federal income tax code into its “level” and “progressive” (or spread) components. Robust results from a vector autoregression model show that increasing the spread of the marginal income tax rates has a positive impact on private spending growth, leading to an indirect, negative impact on the primary deficit ratio. Contrary to the political narrative, our findings suggest that the general level of these tax rates does not significantly impact growth rates or the primary deficit ratio.

中文翻译：

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边际所得税率、经济增长和初级财政赤字

经济理论表明，边际税率的变化比通常研究的平均税率对消费和投资决策更重要。本文使用年度边际税率的新时间序列分析法定税法的总体影响，该序列将联邦所得税法分解为其“水平”和“累进”（或传播）组成部分。向量自回归模型的稳健结果表明，增加边际所得税率的利差对私人支出增长有积极影响，从而对主要赤字率产生间接的负面影响。与政治叙述相反，我们的研究结果表明，这些税率的总体水平不会显着影响增长率或主要赤字率。