The continued relevance of the second-order elections (SOE) theory is one of the most widely debated issues in the study of European Parliament (EP) elections. While the theory has been criticized from many angles, the recent success of populist, extremist, and Eurosceptic parties raises additional questions about the applicability of a model that depicts EP elections as a low-stakes affair revolving around national issues. This article tests the SOE model with party-level data from all 175 EP elections held between 1979 and 2019. While turnout in EP elections remains well below participation rates in national elections, the 2019 EP elections were marked by a significant reduction in the average turnout gap. Across all election years, party size is the most potent predictor of electoral gains and losses in EP elections. Incumbency is associated with electoral losses in most EP election years. These effects are moderated by the electoral cycle and the electoral system in some but not all years. The expectation that the SOE model performs worse in countries with fragmented party systems was not confirmed. All in all, the SOE model continues to wield significant explanatory power in both the West and the East.

二阶选举（SOE）理论的持续相关性是欧洲议会（EP）选举研究中争议最广泛的问题之一。尽管从许多角度对这一理论进行了批评，但民粹主义，极端主义和欧洲怀疑派政党最近的成功提出了一个额外的问题，即该模型是否将EP选举描述为围绕国家问题的低风险事务，其模式是否适用。本文使用1979年至2019年之间举行的全部175次EP选举的政党级数据对SOE模型进行了测试。虽然EP选举的投票率仍远低于全国选举的参与率，但2019年EP选举的特点是平均投票率显着下降差距。在所有选举年中，政党规模是EP选举中选举得失的最有力预测指标。在大多数欧洲议会选举年中，任职与选举损失相关。在某些而非全部年份中，选举周期和选举制度减轻了这些影响。政党制度零散的国家中，国有企业模型表现更差的预期尚未得到证实。总而言之，SOE模型在西方和东方都继续发挥着重要的解释力。