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India’s Demographic Dividend: The Millennials’ Savings Conundrum
Millennial Asia ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-04 , DOI: 10.1177/0976399620958262
Karuna Bohini 1 , C. Hussain Yaganti 1 , Mini P. Thomas 1
Affiliation  

India’s working-age group has been over 60 per cent of its population for over two decades, with a record high of 66 per cent in 2018. The gross domestic savings (GDS), yet, plummeted during the previous decade, recording a low of 29.34 per cent in 2018. This is a divergence from the demographic theories which indicate that a rising working-age population will increase savings. Past research on India’s demographic transitioning implications on economic growth and demographic dividend focused on the working-age group. This article brings in a new dimension to existing studies and analyses savings trends by examining working-age youth, and the millennials within this subgroup, in particular. By considering data from between 1980 and 2017, the article investigates the influence of these two demographic variables on the GDS, along with key macroeconomic variables. The estimation techniques applied are the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and the vector error correction model (ECM). The results indicate that the millennial youth’s influence on GDS is statistically significant. Though the long-term influence of the millennial youth working-age group indicates a positive effect on GDS, the adverse impact reflected in the short run may be pointing towards the future financial sustainability of this segment. Although youth savings are expected to be the lowest in the working-age segment, the significant fall in the youth ratio of employment-to-population in the 20–29 years segment, especially since 2005 onwards, raises the thrust for youth policies that can unravel the millennial savings conundrum and thereby pave the way for India’s demographic dividend.



中文翻译:

印度的人口红利:千禧一代的储蓄难题

印度的劳动年龄组在过去的20多年中已超过其人口的60%,在2018年创下历史新高,达到66%。然而,国内总储蓄(GDS)在过去十年中直线下降,创下历史新低。 2018年为29.34%。这与人口理论不同,后者表明工作年龄人口的增加将增加储蓄。过去有关印度人口转变对经济增长和人口红利影响的研究都集中在劳动年龄组。本文为现有研究提供了新的维度,并通过检查工作年龄的青年尤其是该子类别中的千禧一代来分析储蓄趋势。通过考虑1980年至2017年之间的数据,本文研究了这两个人口统计学变量对GDS的影响,以及关键的宏观经济变量。应用的估计技术是自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整技术和矢量误差校正模型(ECM)。结果表明,千禧一代青年对GDS的影响具有统计学意义。尽管千禧一代青年工作年龄组的长期影响表明了对GDS的积极影响,但短期内反映的不利影响可能表明该细分市场的未来财务可持续性。尽管青年储蓄预计将是工作年龄段中最低的,但在20-29岁年龄段中,尤其是自2005年以来,青年就业人数与人口比率的显着下降,

更新日期:2021-03-15
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