This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, ‘retrospective’ evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015–17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020–December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.

本文介绍了ViEWS政治暴力早期预警系统的更新。此更新引入了（1）用于训练，评估和加权模型的新基础结构，使我们能够更优化地将构成模型组合为集合，（2）大量新的预测模型有助于改善整体性能，尤其是在有效地对高风险和低风险案件进行分类。我们改进的评估程序使我们能够开发专门针对近期或更遥远未来的模型。自从我们在2018年7月至2019年12月开始发布我们的预测以来，我们还对ViEWS的表现进行了正式的“回顾性”评估。我们的指标表明，与以前的样本外预测相比，ViEWS的表现良好2015-17年期间。最后，我们提出了2020年1月至2022年12月的新预测。我们继续预测尼日利亚，索马里和刚果民主共和国的冲突局势将一直保持稳定，但看到喀麦隆和莫桑比克的风险有所降低的迹象。