News reports and policymakers frequently link African civil conflicts and wars to agricultural crises caused by droughts. However, empirical studies of the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict or war remain inconclusive. I reexamine this relationship focusing on rainfall over each country’s agricultural land during the growing seasons. I also incorporate that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output is hump-shaped, as rainfall beyond a threshold decreases output. I find a U-shaped relationship between rainfall and the risk of civil conflict and war in (Sub-Saharan) African countries. This relationship mirrors the hump-shaped relationship between rainfall and agricultural output.

新闻报道和政策制定者经常将非洲的内战和战争与干旱引起的农业危机联系起来。但是，关于降雨与内战或战争之间关系的实证研究仍无定论。我重新审视了这种关系，重点是每个生长季节的每个国家农业土地上的降雨。我还指出，降雨和农业产量之间的关系呈驼峰状，因为超过阈值的降雨会降低产量。我发现（撒哈拉以南）非洲国家的降雨与内战和战争风险之间呈U型关系。这种关系反映了降雨与农业产出之间的驼峰形关系。