This article aims to analyse the effect of capital market performance on Bangladesh’s economy using the data of market capitalization, stock turnover and gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2001 to 2018. This study employed unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, autoregressive distributed lag model, non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, Granger causality test and Toda–Yamamato Granger non-causality test to examine this effect. The result of the vector error correction model revealed the existence of a long-run association between market capitalization and stock turnover as independent variables with GDP. Again, the results of autoregressive distributed lag model and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model also showed that there exists a significant positive relationship between the stock market and GDP of Bangladesh. Finally, Toda–Yamamato Granger non-causality test confirms that there is a unidirectional causality running from the capital market to GDP.

本文旨在使用2001年至2018年的市值，股票周转率和国内生产总值（GDP）增长数据分析资本市场绩效对孟加拉国经济的影响。该研究采用了单位根检验，约翰逊协整检验，矢量误差校正模型，自回归分布滞后模型，非线性自回归分布滞后模型，Granger因果关系检验和Toda-Yamamato Granger非因果关系检验来检验这种影响。向量误差校正模型的结果表明，市值和股票周转率之间存在着长期的关联，这是与GDP无关的变量。再次，自回归分布滞后模型和非线性自回归分布滞后模型的结果还表明，股票市场与孟加拉国GDP之间存在显着的正相关关系。最后，Toda-Yamamato Granger非因果关系检验证实，从资本市场到GDP都存在单向因果关系。