Abstract

This paper documents that mortgage market deregulation helps mitigate the risk of population aging by affecting a foundational family-level decision: the choice to have children. Using a U.S. federal regulator ruling, I show that young households fully exposed to mortgage market deregulation increase their probability of purchasing a home and having a child by 6 percentage points. Supplemental tests reject alternative hypotheses based on income or housing wealth growth and, instead, suggest that access to space is the relevant economic mechanism. Collectively, the evidence indicates that increased access to mortgage credit affects the total number of children in the economy.

中文翻译：

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抵押市场放松的婴儿

摘要

本文证明，抵押贷款市场的放松管制通过影响基本的家庭决策：生孩子的选择，有助于减轻人口老龄化的风险。使用美国联邦监管机构的一项裁决，我证明，完全受到抵押市场放松管制的年轻家庭将购房和生孩子的可能性提高了6个百分点。补充检验拒绝了基于收入或住房财富增长的替代假设，而是表明进入太空是相关的经济机制。总的来说，有证据表明，增加获得抵押贷款的机会会影响经济中儿童的总数。