Abstract

What is the aggregate and distributional impact of microfinance? To answer this question, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic framework of entrepreneurship and financial frictions in which microfinance is modelled as guaranteed small-size loans. We discipline and validate our model using recent empirical evaluations of small-scale microfinance programs. We find that the long-run general equilibrium impact is substantially different from the short-run effect. In the short-run partial equilibrium, output and capital increase with microfinance but total factor productivity (TFP) falls. In the long run, when general equilibrium effects are considered, as should be for economy-wide microfinance interventions, scaling up microfinance has only a small impact on per-capita income, because an increase in TFP is offset by lower capital accumulation. However, the vast majority of the population benefits from microfinance directly and indirectly. The welfare gains are larger for the poor and the marginal entrepreneurs, although higher interest rates in general equilibrium tilt the gains toward the rich.

中文翻译：

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小额信贷的宏观经济学

摘要

小额信贷的总体和分配影响是什么？为了回答这个问题，我们建立了企业家精神和金融摩擦的定量宏观经济框架，在该框架中，小额信贷被建模为有担保的小额贷款。我们使用小规模小额信贷计划的最新经验评估来规范和验证我们的模型。我们发现长期的一般均衡影响与短期的影响大不相同。在短期局部均衡中，产出和资本随着小额信贷的增长而增加，但全要素生产率（TFP）下降。从长远来看，考虑到一般的均衡效应，就像对整个经济领域的小额信贷干预一样，扩大小额信贷对人均收入的影响很小，因为全要素生产率的提高被较低的资本积累所抵消。但是，绝大多数人口直接或间接地从小额信贷中受益。贫困人口和边际企业家的福利收益更大，尽管在一般均衡中较高的利率会使收益向富人倾斜。