Abstract

Quantitative research into the causes of violent intrastate conflicts has recently shifted away from classical country-year-level regression analyses. When taking steps in new directions, researchers should be mindful of the extent and quality, and indeed of the limitations, of the knowledge accumulated by the scholarly endeavors in the booming period between 2000 and 2015. This article traces trends and patterns regarding the use of explanatory variables and datasets in ninety-four individual studies. It synthesizes findings with regard to 107 explanatory concepts. Drawing on the sign test, the analysis identifies a set of consensus variables likely to determine the onset and incidence of violent intrastate conflict. These factors capture robust covariations and lend themselves as elements of a “standard model specification.” Turning to causal mechanisms, the article discusses why variables that turn out to be significant in statistical analyses should have any effect. This is completed by a substantial discussion of the remaining theoretical problems and of methodological prospects that promise paths for future research.

中文翻译：

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整合暴力性州内冲突的发生和发生的定量研究

摘要

最近，关于暴力内部冲突的成因的定量研究已从经典的国家/地区年级回归分析转向。在朝新的方向迈进时，研究人员应牢记2000年至2015年蓬勃发展时期学者努力积累的知识的程度和质量，甚至是局限性。 94个个体研究中的解释变量和数据集。它综合了关于107个解释性概念的发现。借助符号测试，该分析确定了一组可能确定暴力内部州冲突的发生和发生率的共识变量。这些因素捕获了强大的协方差，因此适合作为“标准模型规范”的元素。关于因果机制，本文讨论了为什么统计分析中重要的变量应该产生任何影响。通过对剩余的理论问题和方法学前景的实质性讨论，可以完成未来的研究。