Abstract

What are the prospects and likely future direction of European integration? Will it be marked by resilience and perhaps even deepening integration among European Union (EU) member states, or will it encounter further instability that could lead to fragmentation and disintegration? The answers to these questions are currently unknown but are important not just for the citizens and countries of the EU but for world politics more broadly. Scholars and other observers have advanced a range of arguments to answer these questions, many of which are derived from the three mainstream theoretical paradigms of contemporary International Relations (IR): realism, liberalism, and constructivism. These arguments reveal disagreement both within and across paradigms over the question of the EU's future. While it is commonly thought that realists are generally pessimistic and liberals and constructivists broadly optimistic regarding the EU's future prospects, it is possible to identify arguments derived from liberal IR theory that the EU faces possibly fatal challenges and realists who see powerful reasons for the EU to stick together, while there are constructivists who think it can go either way. There are thus six basic positions on the future of the EU derived from IR theory. This paper identifies and evaluates a broad range of causal forces that will affect the future of European integration. The paper concludes by discussing the enduring role and value of theory in the study of international relations.

中文翻译：

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国际关系理论与欧洲一体化的未来

摘要

欧洲一体化的前景和可能的未来方向是什么？它会以韧性为特征，甚至可能是欧盟成员国之间进一步加深一体化的标志，还是会遇到进一步的动荡，从而导致分裂和瓦解？这些问题的答案目前未知，但不仅对欧盟的公民和国家很重要，而且对更广泛的世界政治也很重要。学者和其他观察者提出了一系列论据来回答这些问题，其中许多是从当代国际关系（IR）的三种主流理论范式中衍生出来的：现实主义，自由主义和建构主义。这些论点表明，在欧盟未来问题上，范式内部和范式之间都存在分歧。人们通常认为现实主义者通常是悲观主义者和自由主义者，而建构主义者则对欧盟的未来前景普遍持乐观态度，但有可能找出源自自由投资者关系理论的论点，即欧盟可能面临致命的挑战，而现实主义者则认为欧盟的强大理由坚持在一起，尽管有一些建构主义者认为它可以任意选择。因此，从国际关系理论得出的关于欧盟未来的六个基本立场。本文确定并评估了将影响欧洲一体化未来的广泛因果力。最后，本文讨论了理论在国际关系研究中的持久作用和价值。可以确定源自自由IR理论的论点，即欧盟可能面临致命的挑战，现实主义者认为欧盟团结在一起的有力理由，而建构主义者则认为欧盟可以走这条路。因此，从国际关系理论得出的关于欧盟未来的六个基本立场。本文确定并评估了将影响欧洲一体化未来的广泛因果力。最后，本文讨论了理论在国际关系研究中的持久作用和价值。可以确定源自自由IR理论的论点，即欧盟可能面临致命的挑战，现实主义者认为欧盟团结在一起的有力理由，而建构主义者则认为欧盟可以走这条路。因此，从国际关系理论得出的关于欧盟未来的六个基本立场。本文确定并评估了将影响欧洲一体化未来的广泛因果力。最后，本文讨论了理论在国际关系研究中的持久作用和价值。本文确定并评估了将影响欧洲一体化未来的广泛因果力。最后，本文讨论了理论在国际关系研究中的持久作用和价值。本文确定并评估了将影响欧洲一体化未来的广泛因果力。最后，本文讨论了理论在国际关系研究中的持久作用和价值。