Abstract

Despite growing attention to an increasing partisan divide and populist voting, little attention has been directed at how social contexts might encourage greater or lesser political polarization. We address this gap by studying how county-level conditions—economic resilience, population change, and community health—intersect with individuals’ political orientations and communication patterns to shape partisan evaluations. Our context is Wisconsin around the 2012 election, with our focus on two prominent political figures: Governor Scott Walker and President Barack Obama. Multilevel modeling reveals that partisans living in counties with more affluent, less precarious conditions during 2009–2012 exhibited more polarized partisan attitudes toward Walker and Obama. Our analysis also finds a significant role for interpersonal communication and digital media in shaping polarized attitudes.

中文翻译：

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改善条件会加强党派偏好吗？生活经验，想象中的社区和两极分化的评估

摘要

尽管越来越注意党派之间的分歧和民粹主义投票，但很少有人关注社会背景如何鼓励或多或少的政治两极分化。我们通过研究县级条件（经济弹性，人口变化和社区健康）如何与个人的政治取向和沟通模式相交以形成党派评价，来解决这一差距。我们的背景是2012年大选前后的威斯康星州，我们关注两个著名的政治人物：州长斯科特·沃克（Scott Walker）和总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）。多级建模显示，2009-2012年间生活在富裕，不稳定状况较弱的县的游击队员表现出对沃克和奥巴马的两极化态度。