Key points

• All sovereign debt restructurings risk undershooting (providing less debt relief than is needed to restore the country to long-term sustainability) or overshooting (extracting more debt relief from creditors than turns out to have actually been necessary).
• Of these, undershooting will be the greater risk in sovereign debt workouts in the post-Covid era. Bondholders can be expected to prefer short and shallow debt restructurings that provide near-term debt relief (time enough to sell out of sticky positions). As for the future, creditors will endorse Doris Day’s assessment—que será será. For their part, politicians in the debtor country may also prefer a quick restructuring that provides abundant short-term debt relief even if it complicates the life of the next administration.
• The last time a systemic emerging market sovereign debt crisis was handled through a series of short and shallow debt restructurings was in the 1980s. It bequeathed to the debtor countries what is still called the Lost Decade. Can a similar fate be avoided in the decade that has just begun?

中文翻译：

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避免失去十年-后科维德时代的主权债务重演

关键点

• 所有的主权债务重组的风险下冲（提供较少的债务减免比是需要恢复该国的长期可持续性）或过冲（提取更多的债权人比原来有实际是必要的债务减免）。
• 其中，不足冲销将是后科维德时代主权债务行使中更大的风险。可以预期，债券持有人会喜欢短期和浅层债务重组，以提供短期债务减免（时间足以卖出粘性头寸）。至于未来，债权人将认可多丽丝·戴（Doris Day）的评估，即ser seraserá。就其本身而言，债务国的政治家们也可能希望进行快速重组，以提供大量的短期债务减免，即使这会使下一届政府的生活复杂化。
• 上一次通过一系列短期和短期债务重组来处理系统性的新兴市场主权债务危机是在1980年代。它给债务国留下了仍然被称为“失落的十年”的东西。在刚刚开始的十年中，是否可以避免类似的命运？